There are endless models being applied to attempt to justify and predict the volatile movements seen in the cryptocurrency market.
One interesting model for predicting the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) involves plotting mining difficulty adjustments along with Bitcoin’s logarithmic price history, in an effort to note recurring patterns.
In a recent post, Twitter analyst PlanB (@100trillionUSD) notes that when Bitcoin sees a negative difficulty adjustment of more than 4% (blue) followed by a positive adjustment (green or red), a local bottom is likely to form with a bullish move following over the next few months.
The pattern seems to occur in threes, often at the beginning, middle and end of various bull runs through the decade-long history of Bitcoin trading. With the most recent adjustment below the -4% threshold, the next adjustment, which is estimated to occur on Thursday, will need to be positive.
I think “approaching” is the correct term. If the next difficulty adjustment is positive (green or red) then we are “entering” the second phase. Indeed interesting to see how this overlaps with Willy’s work!
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2019
Should that happen, PlanB’s analysis indicates further upside is in store as Bitcoin moves into the second phase of the current cycle.