Cryptocurrency market and its swift and abrupt changes have given people a lot of headache, but also a lot to think about in the last week alone. People’s opinions on the near and far future of digital assets varies, but bulls seem hard at work. Nonetheless, analysts also urge traders to consider their warnings.
So what happened? The last week has seen Bitcoin falling below USD 10,000, despite Bakkt launching its long-anticipated Bitcoin futures, the volumes of which disappointed many. BTC price then dropped below USD 8,000. All this time, altcoins were struggling against this pull downwards, but many have felt it hard nonetheless. Despite seeing a slight rise in between and after the two plunges, with Stellar taking the lead among the top 10 rising coins, ETH also saw its gains erased in September, while XRP dropped all the way back to its December 2017 prices.
The 20% drop in BTC prices was blamed on a variety of events, including the underwhelming Bakkt volume numbers as some see it, as well as “the effect of Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s new futures contracts and an unwinding of long positions,” as JPMorgan Chase & Co. says.
What’s going on now? Currently, while all major coins are in the red for the 7-day period (and all but XRP with a double-digit drop at that), in the last 24 hours, majority of the top 10 coins have appreciated, with XRP taking the lead with a rise of 8% (16:05 UTC). The lowest rise for now belongs to bitcoin with 3.9%. At pixel time it trades at c. USD 8,306 and is down by 16% in the past week and by 14% in the past month.
Also, the crypto market sentiment has recently deteriorated again.
What do people think will happen? Overall, the Cryptoverse seems optimistic about the market’s future. Particularly, many people believe that BTC is bound to bounce back and go full bull, and that altcoins might follow.
Trader Alex Krüger, for example, thinks that what we’re seeing is a correction within the larger bull trend. “Best to wait for funding to turn negative before going in size and holding,” he adds.
Popular crypto analyst and trader Josh Rager believes that “price can continue down but expect the bull trend to continue after pullback.” He compared the 2013 market to that of 2019, and said that “a 40% to 50% pullback isn’t that big of a deal when bitcoin has seen 75% pullback in the past that was followed by a 1,600% gain to ATH,” adding that “this pullback too shall pass and will hopefully make for great buying opportunities in the coming days/weeks.” He also stated that, in his opinion, the lowest price BTC will hit is between USD 6,300 and USD 6,600. “Price currently bounced off monthly support & if this area breaks could head to USD 6600 – based on higher time frames,” explained the analyst.
$BTC continuing to range between heavy support near $8k and can expect a bounce to $8700+ if this continues to hold
Any bounce I’ll likely short but will continue to keep an eye on indicators and price action pic.twitter.com/9vYarErafw
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) September 29, 2019
Phillip Swift, the creator of Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier (a tool for better understanding of the cyclical patterns of Bitcoin adoption) finds that we are in a bull market and that the upcoming moves will show if there will be a bounce from this point, though even if there is a fall, he finds that “it’s worth looking at what is probable if we brake down again.”
5/ …because clearly we are in a bull market. Multiple charts including the Puell Multiple show approximately where we are in the cycle (A,B,C on the chart).
Feels like this is the final test before we go full bull, so hold tight everyone! 👊 pic.twitter.com/5oHaLsibGU
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) September 25, 2019
However, even if the prices continue to go down, while many would naturally feel distressed, people seem to be excited about the opportunity they would get to buy the dip. Others, though, jokingly say they’d just have wait for a few seconds till the prices are back up.
Is that a trick question? What’s the joke?
— Steve PEOPLE’S VOTE North (@snorth86293881) September 30, 2019
A Case for Hodl
Gold Bullion International co-founder Dan Tapiero tweeted that BTC is a great asset for long-term investors, and that there’s a good reason to hodl and not spend your BTC: “If you bought BTC Jan’13 at USD 13 but missed the 10 best days of performance in every year for the following 5 years you lost a ton of money over those 5 [years] despite having bought at USD13,” he says.
STAGGERING FACT-A reason NOT to trade Btc and ONLY hodl. If you bought btc Jan’13 at $13 but missed the 10 best days of performance in every year for the following 5 years you lost a ton of money over those 5 yrs despite having bought at $13. Great asset for long term investors! pic.twitter.com/UJDGVUVuvK
— Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) September 30, 2019
Also, entrepreneur and Bitcoin bull John McAfee stressed, that using BTC will stimulate its rise.
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Nick Core finds that, while “BTC did break the low, it’s not all that bad” when looking at the on-balance volume indicator.
$BTC did break the low but it’s not all that bad on the OBV side.
This could setup a very easy trap for shorters anticipating the break, watching for some kind of settling on a swing low or a continuation of trend is the best option for those not in a position. pic.twitter.com/JCTvPdcdnI
— Nick Core 🏆 (@Crypto_Core) September 30, 2019
Possibility of New Highs
And while some are thinking that this might be a good chance to buy BTC and many altcoins too, not many people seem to think that USD 14,000 will be the high for the next five years, according to the poll by CEO of Three Arrows Capital Su Zhu. 51% believe that the chances for that are less than 10%, compared to 19% who believe in the very opposite.
What is the probability that $14k is the high for the next 5 yrs?
— Su Zhu 🦁 (@zhusu) September 28, 2019
Others, however, see BTC as a long-term option, saying that what matters will be seen in the future.
Being a perma bull is objectively +EV. Since bitcoin is basically a long dated call option you’re either going to be rich and be regarded as a financial wunderkind or everyone will forget about the ponzi and it won’t really matter.
— Flood [BitMEX] (@ThinkingUSD) September 28, 2019
On the other hand, trader Nick Cote noted the latest developments on the charts since the last BTC drop, but he emphasizes that he is “still bearish.”
— Nick Cote (@mBTCPizpie) September 29, 2019
Meanwhile, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ research chief Tom Lee, in what he called “just a statement of observation,” said that the current situation in the market is neither bullish nor bearish.
Before everyone starts freaking out whether crypto winter is over, remember the @fundstrat ‘rule of 10 best days’ (rule #6)
– ex-10 best days, #bitcoin down 25% per year. All the gains come in 10 days. Are u that good at trading?
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) September 28, 2019
Back in June, Lee said that FOMO (fear of missing out) may trigger a BTC price rise, while in a recent interview he said that if equities rise, bitcoin will follow, so all-time-highs and an altseason may be coming soon. In the interview for Yahoo Finance on September 26th, Lee stated that Fundstrat wasn’t surprised by the recent events in the market, as they could see it coming at the beginning of July, when the Bitcoin Misery Index broke below 66 and Lee warned that until it “falls towards 50, you shouldn’t really try and dabble in bitcoin.” He reiterated that the major stock index, S&P, being trendless is not good for BTC: “The S&P needs to make new a high before bitcoin can break out.”
Nonetheless, “Bitcoin is vulnerable but I don’t think the thesis is broken. So if someone saying does this mean bitcoin’s a broken story now. I mean l think long term holders should not worry,” Lee concluded.